From: [S--Y--A] at [SUVM.SYR.EDU] (Sergio Rivera) Newsgroups: talk.politics.drugs Subject: Economics for Sustainable Development Date: Mon, 07 Nov 94 23:19:02 LCL Economics for Sustainable Development December 1992 HEADLINE: Andean coca trade BYLINE: By Brian Keeley Drugs are one of the largest problems facing the developed countries today. Many of the developed nation have declared a ''social'' war on illegal drugs. There has been*a*the US, Europe, and Japan are the major consumers of cocaine, a powerful stimulant derived from the coca plant. The past twenty years has shown a massive influx of cocaine filling our streets. Cocaine has been called by many white gold, with regard to its low mass per dollar value. Furthermore selling cocaine is quite profitable and has become an attractive alternative to legitimate work not only in our cities but throughout the producing nations. While in our society this is a sociological problem, many people in the Andean nation depend on income it produces. Coca has become the largest and most profitable cash crop in these countries. According to 1988 estimates of production the big three countries, Peru, Bolivia, and Colombia, produced (in finished product) 273 tons, 173 tons, and 53 tons respectively. (Eisner) These exports add up to an astonishing 35 % of the nations Gross National Product (GNP), thus it is clear that the drug trade has a major role in these countries economic systems (Randall). THE MARKET Coca is grown in the Upper Huallaga Valley in Peru and in Chapare, Bolivia. The warm, moist climate is perfectly suited for the plant. Once the leaf in harvested it is mixed with kerosene and ash and stomped, very labor intensive, into a paste. This process usually takes place where the leaf is grown. Since the paste is more concentrated it brings a higher price. Planes land daily in these concentrated producing regions to buy the paste. The planes then fly to Colombia where the paste is refined in hidden jungle labs. (Kawell, p. 36) Since the majority of farmers are paid in dollars, secondary markets have developed. Colombian's primarily coordinate activities at this level. Many farmers are fearful of the Colombians passing counterfeit dollars. This has led to informal currency exchanges. Brokers, usually Colombians, arrive at the runways and await the planes. They wait to buy dollars, carrying suitcases full of intis and pocket calculators. While the exchange is not optimal many farmers prefer this market rather*than* travelling to a bank in town. The dollars then are sold on Oco~a street in Lima, for a slight markup to the many importers and smugglers. It is estimated that $ 3 million exchanges hands every day in Oco~a street market. The level of incoming dollars directly effect foreign exchange and the price of imported, American goods. (Kawell, p. 36) Problems with Stopping the Production. An estimated 600,000 people live directly off cocaine production in Andean Nations. This include 450,000 coca growers and about 150,000 employed in making the paste. (Kawell, p. 35) Manual eradication, promoted by the US, is a slow laborious process that is often met with violent opposition. The woody coca plant must be dug up as it roots are too strong to be pulled. Created in 1983 in Peru, CORAH (Special Project for the Control and Eradication of Coca in the Upper Huallaga) was initially very successful in it pursuits. The 462 man team has seen a major decline in its effectiveness, dropping to 355 hectares (2.5 acres) as compared to 2,575 the previous year. The reason for this remarkable drop was due to security concerns, namely from guerrillas and traffickers. Thirty CORAH workers have died since the program has begun. Workers are now escorted by US helicopters and police guards. This greatly increases the likelihood of US personnel directly engaging opposition. The State Department has denied any*altercations. (Kawell, p. 14) Secondly*by forcibly forbidding the cultivation of coca, the government pits itself not only against the formidable forces of the wealthy traffickers but against its own people. As protection against the police many growers have welcomed in guerilla groups who protect them and their crops. This undermines the support for the government while strengthening the antigovernment forces further forcing peasants to join the informal sector where tax revenue can not be captured. The informal sector includes other jobs associated with cocaine production. (Kawell, p. 16) Another problem lies in the different social values between the US and these countries. For many people growing coca is a way of life and they see nothing wrong with it. They feel that their governments have been bullied into the position of being forced into action against them by the US. They believe that what they are doing is not wrong. Coca is very much a part of their culture and they have no problems with it. It commonly used medicinally to alleviate the symptoms of altitude sickness. In fact coca tea is found through out Peru and Bolivia and served in hotels and restaurants. The Bolivian Ambassador from the US says, ''You could find some in the Embassy.'' (Eisner) ''Here it is a necessity to avoid the hunger; you could not work without chewing the leaf,'' says one farmer. The leaf, since the active ingredient has not been extracted and concentrated, is less powerful. In their society coca is part of everyday life not an evil or a problem, just a way of getting through the day and earning a living. ''We have nothing, sir. Do you think we are bad or that we are to blame? We try to sell coca just to survive, not to become rich. Look at us,'' says another peasant farmer hauling three 50 pound bags of leaf to the market. She continues, ''It costs us more to grow the coca then it is selling for.'' (Eisner) A merchant in the local coca co-op, where coca leaves are sold argues, ''But there are no addicts. We chew the leaf, but no one knows what cocaine looks like. And they would not take drugs - the family is everything; they would be ashamed.'' Finally above his head in the local coca market is a poster which I believe summarizes their views very well, in fact it is the motto of the coca growers: ''Coca: presently the food of the poor; the bad use of the coca leaf is poisonous for the Yankee.'' All these quotes lead to the issue that the people of the nations have been saying all along. Many Latin American countries believe that the United States policy is*to enforcement oriented and isn't designed to cope with the economic and social repercussions of its enforcement effort. Problems with Implementation of Policy According to Rensselaer W. Lee, head of the Global Advisor Services, a consulting firm working on the narcotics issues, ''When you wipe out a peasant's coca field and leave him with no reasonable economic alternatives, he's faced with some rather stark choices -- emigration out of the region or joining a revolutionary movement.'' (Farnsworth) Forcing many farmers out of the booming coca industry into the unemployment lines creates greater civil unrest and aids the leftist guerilla insurgency that is spreading over the Andean nations. All of which lead to further instability in the region which discourages foreign investment. A specific example of how policies with good intentions can back-fired leading to further problems is a 1988 Bolivian Law which on paper satisfied most of the demands of the Reagan administration. This crop substitution program allow some legal cultivation of existing plots of coca. But when 10 per cent of his field has been replaced with fruit, corn, or nut trees the farmer is eligible for a one time payment of $ 2000 per hectare and can receive credits and community development funds. But according to a US official monitoring the success of the program less than 50 per cent of the goal of 12,000 acres has been accomplished. According to Edmundo Deladillo Probieri, who runs the cooperative coca market, ''Everyone has taken the $ 2,000 and planted more coca elsewhere.'' (Eisner) This policy leads to an increase in the deforestation. Farmers will have to clear new land, via slash and burn techniques, for their crops. Furthermore, despite the $ 100 million in additional funding for crop conversion, a US aerial crop estimate is expected to show there is more coca cultivation this year than last. (Farnsworth) Another problem that exists is one that economists call the fungibility problem. This theory says that it is very difficult to effectively target needy groups, that is*gets the funds to who*they are intended. This is a major problem in the coca nations. Despite eight years of alternative development efforts financed by the US, positive results have been negligible. The Agency for International Development (AID) calculates that theirs programs -- run through the Bolivian Government -- are reaching less than one per cent of the families they are intended to reach. (Farthing, p. 2) According to Farthing 85 % of US economic assistance goes to support the nations balance of payments (BOP), which helps the country restructure its foreign debt and attract foreign investors. The Shining Path The Shining Path, also known as, Sendero Luminoso is a militant Maoist guerilla group operating primarily in Peru. In the face of apparent exhaustion of normal politics, a significant minority of Peruvians have turned to the revolutionary violence of Sendero Luminoso. The Path received a reputation for brutality and dogmatic*authoritarianism. The party's leader, Abimael Guzman, ''the fourth sword of Marxism'' has become the country's dominant political figure. (Smith, p. 88) Beginning in 1980 the Path began a guerilla war whose aim was nothing less then a seizure of power and to implant a Maoist-style Communist government. After 11 years the insurgency has spread across the Andean region, into the coca-growing regions of the eastern slope, and solidly entrenched itself in the capital. With its 'pueblos jovenes' (shantytowns) riddled by ''red zones'' where Sendero has a stronger presence than the authorities. With continuous power blackouts, constant bombings and attacks, violent strikes and demonstrations, Lima is taking the pre-revolutionary aspect of Buenos Aires in the mid-1970's or San Salvador in the late 1970's (Smith, p. 89). In 1978, Gen Francisco Morales Bermudez decided to prohibit coca cultivation in the Upper Huallaga valley and ordered that coca growers be prosecuted. Residents had to face continual attacks from specialized antidrug police force on one hand, and the traffickers band of hired guns,*known as 'sicarios,' on the other. The 'sicarios' made sure that coca production levels would remain unchanged. Because coca buyers generally advance payment to the growers before delivery, farmers must protect their crops from the police or else face the*gun men. The level of violence in the area became incredible high. It was not the local police who set off this violence, for bribes and lack of resources will take care of them. It was the 'sicarios' who would tell the farmers how many kilos of coca they must sell, who mercilessly do away with intransigent or ambitious officials, who appear at any place at any time to settle scores. (Gonzalez, p. 22) It was the actions of the Peruvian government, in the early 80's, escalating eradication attempts driving the farmers to seek the protection of Tupac Amaru Revolutionary Movement (MRTA) or in other parts of the country the Shining Path. The Shining Path began organizing in areas where the MRTA didn't exist. It was their show of force that impressed the people; as one farmer Lucas Cachay explains: The narcos [coca-traffickers] often claim that the price of coca is low because of overproduction. They [the farmers] know that's not true, but they have no one to protect them. That is what Sendero [the Path] offers: protection. Besides, in this region, since the *there is a lot of money, there is alcohol, parting, violence ... Sendero puts an end to all that and puts everyone to work. And they close the discotheques, the brothels, they kill the homosexuals and they send the prostitutes packing. (Gonzalez, p. 23) Initially the narcos and Sendero were mutually beneficial to each other, as Sendero's purpose was to destroy the control of the MRTA. The MRTA had been accused of cutting deals with the traffickers on the price of coca leaf and paste. As one official says: ''It is true the narcos attacked the producers' organizations, but that was only the beginning..*Later on they reached some accord with the leaders, and even gave them guns. Once Sendero became strong enough, they [Sendero] turned on the traffickers and claimed the right to fix the price of coca.'' (Gonzalez p. 23) Once the narcos caught on*the began once again backing MRTA, and in some places allowed the Sendero to move to keep the*Police at bay. By the end of 1986, Sendero was moving around freely*with in heavily armed groups of more than 30 men. They called out to residents of towns to hear their gripes, judging the local authorities, in some cases killing 'sicarios,' and finally ''electing'' leaders. Through a series of mini-wars and ambushes the Sendero, allied with the narcos, won control in town after town, becoming the 'de facto' government in the Upper Huallaga Valley. The guerilla's act as a militant producers union and buffer against both the antidrug police, who attempt to take away farmers means of survival, as well as against the narcos who attempt to pay undervalued prices for coca. For their part the Sendero collect taxes on the coca produced. The ''taxes'' collected on the $ 600 to $ 800 million which circulates annually in the valley amounts to $ 30 to $ 40 million, far more than any other political organization in Peru. (Gonzalez, p. 24) Abimael Guzman was recently arrested in Lima in late September of 1992. He was forced out of hiding and into the lower valley of the capital of Lima by chronic psoriasis aggravated by the dry mountain air. In his apartment with him were his two highest lieutenants and second in command. Authorities also found data on computer disks about an upcoming October offensive on Lima. Also 200 more suspected Senderistas were rounded up. Supporters say that is not the man that is ultimately important, but what he stood for. The so called ''Gonzalo Thought'' will be remain for years. He attempted to create a collective brain, much like insects in his followers. ''The individual becomes an instrument and nothing more.'' Guzman objective was simple: to destroy capitalistic society through violence -- ''crossing a river of blood,'' he called it -- then to build a new communist democracy. (Newsweek, Sept. 28 1992) The Cartels The drug lords of the*nations are indeed very powerful people. These drug bosses wield significant power over the people, institutions, and business in the cocaine producing countries. Their business is intertwined in local society and has corrupted local government. As already mentioned8the people of the area do not believe that they are doing any wrong. Their close association with the people has created a loyalty to these cartels heads and their*understudies. Without knowledge of economics, peasants understand that disrupting the trade would mean a loss of income for either themselves or their close associations. So they protect them in many instances. General Miguel Maza Marquez, head of the Directorate for Administrative Security, head of the Colombian equivalent of the FBI has made the capture of the cartel bosses his personal fight. He says, ''Initially, it was impossible to catch these guys. If a helicopter goes out, they have some little guy in the control tower. If we send people to catch them, they have an informant on the ground. It's really a question of organizing it. You have to destroy the infrastructure.'' (Eisner) Through this feeling of locality, though financially motivated, the cartels have attained a certain level of padding. This padding then gives them a degree of protection against the authorities. According to an authenticated tape provided to Newsday magazine drug boss Rodriquez Gacha argues ''Why should we leave? We have the support of the people, who love us.'' This quote I think illustrates the feeling of frustration many law enforcement officers feel. On one side they are being pressured by the US government via the local governments to clean up their countries. On the other hand they are servants of the people. If the people earn their living from the trade and do in fact ''love'' the drug czars then they are indeed torn. The Cartels power is derived from their control on all facets of coke production as well as the number of people employed, directly or otherwise. They created the markets where the peasants sell their Coca leaves. They employ the chemical engineers that turn the leaf in the finished product, which requires significant chemicals resources ironically imported from the US. They also employ the pilots, ship captains, truckers, and drivers*which transport the product illegally impaling significant risk. They also have men in customs, and other law enforcement agencies which facilitate the importation of the product. Then there are the major dealers who are mouthpieces for the cartels overseas. These are very trusted men, and subsequently well paid as they often have the most dangerous job. The final aspect involves white collar criminals whose job it is to*lander the money. * QUOTE Commonly, the group of bosses, the Cartel, are from the same town and subsequently are know by that town's name. There are presently two major cartels the need to be addressed: the now fading Medellin cartel, and the in power Cali Cartel. The Medellin Cartel The Medellin cartel, prominent through out the 70's and 80's controlled, ''80 per cent of the cocaine entering the United States'' according to Scott MacDonald, former senior international economist at American Security Bank. According to Mr. Lee, a narcotics consultant, 10-12 billion dollars was made in coke trafficking in 1988. This amount of income and wealth is difficult for us to get a grasp on. In 1984 Pablo Escobar, Jorge Ochoa and other drug lords had been expelled from the country after the assignation of a Colombian anti-drug leader, Lara Bonilla. Wanting to return to Colombia they offered to inject massive amount of money into the local economies. According to MacDonald, ''the2capos (Italian for boss) would inject $ 3 billion annually into the economy, dismantle the cocaine factories and clandestine airstrips, and help rehabilitate addicts.'' With all the economic and moral benefits associated with the deal; the waning power of the cartels, destructions of the production capital, creation of many jobs for Colombia, and the influx of massive amounts of capital in the economy the Betancur administration would not make deals with known drug dealers. The fall of the Medellin cartel can be attributed to many things. Medellin's drug power has been shattered by its long and vicious war on the Colombian government. A 22-month counterattack by the authorities has killed drug boss Jose Gonzalo Rodriguez Gacha, forced the surrender of his fellow cocaine barons, the brothers Jorge, Juan David and Fabio Ochoa, destroyed dozens of labs and airstrips and scattered lesser capos abroad. In the most stunning blow yet to the cartel, Medellin chief Pablo Escobar Gaviria surrendered last week under a plea-bargaining program that promises he will not be extradited to stand trial in the US. The above income figure coupled with recent developments, the emergence of the Cali cartel to prominence, the subsequent conditional surrender of Medellin bosses Pablo Escobar and Jorge Ochoa to Colombian officials, indicates a misleading victory for US enforcement officers. First of all* there is a growing feeling among United States officials that the cartels heads are tiring of the pressure and pursuit and want to settle down. Escobar prior to his surrender, plea-bargained for trial in Colombia. This is significant in a number of ways. First of all* by being tried in Colombia for all his crimes he can not be tried in the US for the same crimes. US officials call this avoiding double jeopardy. Second of all, given his significant financial resources and the level of corruption that exists in the government he will be acquitted. Thus a free man he may spent his money, undoubtably in secure Swiss accounts, anyway he wishes. According to a source inside the Cartels, ''They consider themselves businessmen [who, however] are fighting for survival against [government] repression.'' ''Basically all they want to do is enjoy the money that they have made'', says another businessman in Medellin. (Eisner) The Cali Cartel The Cali combine produces 70 % of the coke reaching the US today, according to the DEA, and 90 % of the drug sold in Europe. The Cali godfathers have a virtual lock on the global wholesale market in the most lucrative commodity ever conceived by organized crime. The cartel is the best and brightest of the modern underworld: professional, intelligent, efficient, imaginative and nearly impenetrable. Says Robert Bonner, administrator of the DEA: ''The Cali cartel is the most powerful criminal organization in the world. No drug organization rivals them today or perhaps any time in history.'' (Washington) While the Medellin cartel exemplified the brute force approach, the Cali are extremely cool and calculating. By means of legitimate business ventures, the Cali2capos have forged contacts with key people in business, politics, the law and the press. ''Cali gangs will kill if they have to,'' says Robert Bryden, head of the DEA in New York. ''But they prefer to use a lawyer.'' Recently as many as twelve bankers, who handled the money laundering for the Cali have been arrested. While charges are pending, I am sure more information is forthcoming. Effect of the Coca Trade on the Environment. The coca trade has had various detrimental effects the environment in the Andean region. The degradation comes from a number of sources; the farmers cutting down virgin forest to hide their coca filed from the antidrug police, the lack of proper disposal of chemicals used at various point in the production process, the runways cut out of the forest for the planes, the toxic run-off created by rainwater running over improperly fertilized land, and by the herbicide the US has dropped on coca fields. The local governments do not give high regard to the environmental concerns of the area. These concerns do and should effect the policy undertaken by the US, World Bank, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). We can not promote a program that has sever2 detrimental effects2 another nations environment. Possible Solutions One solution that exists would be to decriminalize drug use and trade. While an entire term paper can and has been written on the effect of the legalization of drugs I have neither the time or space to fully discuss it, so I will attempt to give a quick rundown of the involved issues. Global drug legalization would allow these producing countries to incorporate the informal sectors created by the coca dollars as well as the trade itself to be incorporated into the economy. This would yield significant tax revenues by the producing countries. Also this would end the enormous profits made by the traffickers, reducing their role in the country to next to nothing. Legal coca production would also benefit the farmers who receive a more equitable share of the profits than before. The guerilla groups also would suffer since the farmers no longer have a need for their services. Legalization then would lead to increased economic growth in these nations, give the government more resources with which to develop the economy into a modern one, and it would also create political stability by reducing the role of the traffickers, smugglers, and guerilla groups. (Henderson) Arguments against legalization are fairly obvious*the further decay of morals and deteriorating emphasis on family values. @ Herbicides The US government has been searching for a ''magic bullet'' in its war against coca production. Officials hope that a type of herbicide can be developed to allow massive eradication by air, thereby avoiding confrontations and increase the overall success rate. Various chemicals have been tested but coca is a very sturdy plant that in many cases grows back stronger after being treated with defoliants. Government experiments with 2,4-D a defoliant have lead to massive protests by growers and scientists concerned about the possible environmental damage. The Bolivian press reported that the US had been using Agent Orange, a mixture of 2,4-D and 2,4,5-T, which further fueled local rage. (Kawell, p. 18) In 1985 the US began experimenting with a new herbicide produced by Dow Chemical, called Garlon-4. Used with limited success Dow refused to sell the US government more of the herbicide unless it was granted indemnity from damage suits that may occur. (Dow produced Agent Orange and still faces suits) Later in 1987 a new herbicide by Eli Lilly called Spike was shown to be very effective in destroying the woody coca plant. Lilly soon refused to sell more as the EPA label Spike as ''an active herbicide that will kill trees, shrubs, and other forms of desirable vegetation'' and should be ''kept out of lakes ponds, and streams.'' The criticism of its use, as before, from environmentalists forced Lilly to make its decision. They argued that the test period had been too short and the herbicide may harm the delicate tropical ecosystem. (Kawell, p. 19) Recently a killer fungus, 'fusarium oxysporum', has without US intervention attacked coca plants and turned half of the Upper Huallaga Valley acres into dried up stumps. (Marx, July 4, 1992) The effects of this fungus will have on the level of leaf production is yet unknown. It is also unknown whether or not this fungus can be effectively treated by the farmers. If not this fungus offers an environmentally friendly herbicide, contrasted to those discussed above. Weaning the Economy away for Coca-dependency The developed countries wish to find alternative exports for the countries of the Andean nations both to give them a sound economic infrastructure from which to build on and to alleviated the problems associated with cocaine. At the current time 46 kilos of fragile bananas often hauled many miles by bike receives $ 2 at he market while the same amount of dried coca leaf earns $ 52. (Farthing p. 2) In addition to the absence of a substitutable cash crop, there is a lack of a credit market. The US makes some credit available at the rate of 13 %, which seems reasonable. The loan is paid in the highly unstable Bolivian currency, and must be paid back in dollars. The real interest rate, including inflation (previously <10,000 %, now around 22 % (1990)) is around 30 %. (Farthing p. 3) Technical assistance, necessary to the development of better agricultural practices and ultimately output is non existent. There are only 9 agronomists, for the 40,000 farmers in Bolivia. Another problem that I feel is readily apparent from the reaction of other smaller nations when the US steps in to ''help'', is the imperialistic nature of the policies pursued. The development plans are conceived without participation by the nations involved, and are designed and directed by specialists far from the area. (Farthing P.3) The effect the supply of coca-dollars have on the Bolivian foreign exchange rate is incredible. ''Every time there's a big anti-drug operation the dollar goes up and everything gets more expensive,'' says Susanna Rance a researcher in La Paz. ''Many people breath a sigh of relief when the operations are over and things get back to normal.'' (Kawell, P.37) ''There are to many people chasing too few legitimate forms of employment to guarantee a living wage to all. The United States must provide an incentive to these individuals to stop producing drugs.'' Tom Campbell, US Senator of California. According to former Secretary of State George Schultz there are two main areas of concern in solving the existing problems in the Andean Nations. Restoring growth in these nations is of primary concern. Next Schultz points out that restoring the credit worthiness and external financial balance is also essential to the continued development of these nations. ''These areas must be made attractive to foreign investors'', he says. ''Until the violence in the Andean region is decreased substantially, I feel that foreign investors will shy away from investing in Peru, Colombia, and Bolivia.'' In response, President Bush has announced trade concessions, expanded agricultural development assistance and other measures designed to assist the cocaine producing nations of Colombia, Bolivia, and Peru. These measure will abolish duties on 67 products sold in the US (Farnsworth) President Bush has announced that his ultimate goal is a free trade zone for the entire hemisphere. Such a zone all ready exists in Canada, and is rapidly moving toward one with Mexico. Until the effects of the this possibility are studied Bush has asked Congress to grant a tariff preference for the involved countries. This is based on an all ready existing program of special trade privileges that the US grants to 130 developing countries. Examples of these privileges are lower tariffs, exceptions to quotas, and access to protected markets. Philanthropy aside, how much is enough? ''Fighting drugs is a goal we all share, but we cannot and should not sacrifice our own farmers in the process.'' -- US Senator Dale Bumper of Arkansas. The US government in the 1950's created a agency to help the undeveloped*nations. AID, Agency for International Development, had lofty goals to create economic and political stability. Speaking about a 120 million dollar research grant to study growing of soybeans in South America, Brazil specifically, US Senator Dale Bumpers feels, ''Each year AID, fully sponsored by the US government, donates tens of millions of dollars to research. Under the AID auspices, tax money was subsidizing research, seminars, and production practices aimed at improving other countries' export crops. In essence the US farmers were watching their hard earned tax dollars go to support the competition.'' Brazil is all ready the second largest exporter of soybeans. In attempting to help other economies grow, American farmers are being hurt by their tax dollars. Conclusion The US must take a long hard look at its drug policy toward the Andean nations and see exactly what effects it policies are having on the countries political and economic systems. I believe that current policy both on the part of the US and local governments is not sufficiently committed to the cause. If the problem is to be tackled greater attention must be given to the needs and concerns of those involved (local level) and greater resources must be allocated. As it stands now the US policy, seems to the people to be imperialistic and is creating a growing dissatisfaction with the local democracies. The US believes that the coca problem is most easily solved by supply side action, that is controlling the supply of the drug leaving the producing country. While this seems easier than directly attacking the drug lords, or decreasing demand in the domestic market, this policy places farmers in a precarious position. It will be interesting to see what president elect Bill Clinton will do in these areas. Many believe that he is, or will attempt to show, that he is even more anti-communist than the preceding administrations. If this is the case*he may put larger numbers of US personnel in the area. Possibly further enraging the anti-American forces. Unless something positive is done the possibility of war will continue to exist, as millions of people aren't going to give up the lucrative trade without a fight. While there doesn't seem to be a clear cut solutions to any of the problems raised in this paper. Many Americans can not even agree if a problem exists. If a problem is be solved people need to work together in achieving it. A single group of people without the support of the world, can not successfully attempt to change the undeveloped world without having a conflict of interest. Bibliography Andreas, Peter and Youngers, Coletta. '''Busting' The Andean Cocaine Industry: America's Counterproductive War on Drugs.'' 'World Policy Journal'; Summer 1989 v 6 n 3, page 529. Article offered alot*of information on the actual effects of US policy in the Andean Nations. Bumpers, Dale and Cambell, Tom; ''South America and Trade'', Ganett News Service, April 8, 1990, Sunday, American Forum. Presents possible effects of lifting present quotas on Andean exports, thereby increasing the profitability of growing legitimate crops. The article also takes into account the possible effects on the American farmer who may suffer from the increase in supply in the world market. Both Bumpers and Cambell believe that an increase in supply will not effect the American farmer, due to the tiny increase in supply. In fact they cite the Florida governor who supports the legislation and believes that an increase in South American citrus wouldn't have an effect on his people. Eisner, Peter; ''The Producers''; 'Newsday', December 17, 1989. Page 6. This article illustrates the ''trickle down'' effect of narco-dollars from a micro-economic point of view. Interviews several small coca farmers attempting to feed their families from the income earned by harvest coca leaves. Points out how a 1988 Bolivian law designed to substitute coca growing for legitimate crops has backfired and consequently subsidized the destruction of more natural resources. Farnsworth, Clyde H, ''Bush Presents Plan to Help Andean Nations Grow Non-Coca Crops'', 'The New York Times', July 24, 1990, Tuesday Late Edition - Final, Section A; Page 6, Column 1; Foreign Desk,@Detailed account of President Bush's plans to fight the Andean drug war by promoting legitimate Andean crops. Includes reactions by the various governments as to the effectiveness of these polices. The Andean governments contend the belief that the US is too enforcement oriented, while ignoring our own countries demand, that actually drives the market. Farrell, Nicholas, ''The Shining Path to Destruction'', The Spectator, April 14 1990, page 14. Offer historical account the Shining Path and what they future may bring. Farthing, Linda, ''Bolivian Farmers Hurt by US Anti-Drug Program'', 'San Francisco Chronicle , August 11, 1992, page A8. Croniccals from a local's perspective the effects the drug war are having. Federal News Service, February 4, 1992, 'Hearing of the Terrorism, Narcotics, and International Operations Subcommittee of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee: The Andean Initiative.' Congressional hearing involving the people in the US Government that set the policies in the Andean region. A lengthy article that discusses many possibilities to stimulate the legitimate Andean economy including: opening up of the countries for foreign investment, free trade in the western hemisphere, and debt for nature swaps. Fidler, Stephen; ''Colombia: Rule of the Market and the Gun."; The Financial Times Limited; December 6, 1991, Page 31. A current article, after the Escobar and Ocho surrender, on the possibility of new found confidence for investors in the Columbian economy. This increase in confidence is due in large part to the reduction in narco-terrorism, the economies diversification away from coffee, and a great degree of political stability. 'Foreign Policy Bulletin'; ''The Andean Strategy to control Cocaine''; July 1, 1990, Vol.1, number 1, page 71. Short article on current governmental actions taken to deal with the cocaine trade. Gonzalez, Raul, ''Coca's Shining Path'', Report on the Americas, Vol. 22, N. 6, March 6, 1989, p. 23. Details the accounts of the Shining Path, who they are and what they stand for. Henderdon, David R.. ''A Humane Economist's Case for Drug Legalization'', 'University of California at Davis Law Review', Vol. 24, page 655. Heritage Foundation Reports, ''A US Role In Chile's Democratic and Economic Reforms.'', June 20, 1991, Backgrounder; No. 837. Gives a detailed history of Chile's past, present and future attempts to promote economic growth and limit the influence of the drug lords. Included is discussion of possible free trade agreement and the initiation of a fund that will help governments such as Chile grow legitimate crops as substitutes for coca. Kawell, Jo Ann, ''Under the Flag of Law Enforcement'', 'Report on the Americas', Vol. 22, N. 6, March 6, 1989, Page 25. Kawell, Jo Ann, ''The Addicted Economies'', 'Report on the Americas, Vol. 22, N. 6, March 6, 1989, Page 33. Kawell, Jo Ann, ''Going to the Source'', 'Report on the Americas', Vol. 22, N. 6, March 6 1989, Page 12. * The above three are all excellent works. They each take the cocaine trade from a different perspective and show what effects it has had on law enforcement, the economies, and the people. Lee, Renssalaer W; The White Labyrinth: Cocaine and Political Power; Transaction Publishers, Newbrunswick USA, c1989. Contains, in depth, discussions of the drug trade. The book also discusses the involvement of government in the drug trade and the massive level of corruption which exists in an economy driven by trade in illicit material. MacDonald, Scott and Hughes, Jane and Bott, Uwe; 'Latin American Debt in the 1990s: Lessons from the Past and Forecasts for the Future'; Praeger Publishers; New York, New York; c1991. Discusses possible solutions to the massive debt crisis that plagues the Andean nations. Included is possible solutions some which have been tried and failed, others which have not yet been tested. MacDonald, Scott B.; Dancing on a Volcano: The Latin American Drug Trade; Praeger Publishers New York, New York; c1988. Contains, in depth, discussions of the drug trade. Marx, Gary; ''Life Sentence: Monica de Greiff survived the threats, but the Medellin Cartel issues few reprieves.''; The Chicago Tribune Company; August 30, 1991; North Sports Final Edition; Tempo; Page 1; Zone : CN. First hand account of the how Andean cartels effect life in the region. Details the flee of the former justice minister, Monica de Greiff, from Colombia. She carried out the war on drugs for the US until she was forced to leave the country due to murderous threats. She now lives with a price on her head and the US is turning its back. Morales, Edmundo; ''Cocaine: White Gold Rush in Peru''; University of Arizona Press; Tucson, Arizona; c1989. Discusses the explosion of the coca plant as a cash crop in Peru. Rand, Jason; Ftp'd form UCSU/ esf, 'Andean Cocaine Trade'@Thorough paper on the subject, provides detailed history of involved nations. As well as illustrating just how intertwined the coca trade is with society in this nations. Scott, Peter Dale and Marshall, Jonathon; 'Cocaine Politics: Drugs, Armies and the CIA in Central America'; University of California Press; Berkeley and Los Angeles, California; c1991. Discusses the American involvement in the war on drugs and in the politics in those nations. Though not directly related to this paper the book shows just how US has dealt with economically inferior nations in the past and will shed light on the involvement in South America. Shultz, George: 'Beyond the Debt Problem: The Path to Prosperity in Latin America'; Statement to the OAS; February, 1986. Dated yet still informational article on American policies in the area. Includes many facts and figures about America's foreign aid policy in Latin America. Smith, Philip, ''Grappling with the Shining Path'', 'New Politics', Winter 1992, page 87. Detailed article about the Shining Path, its leader, and the goals and traditions of the group. 'University of California at Davis Law Review', ''In Opposition to Drug Legalization'', Vol. 24, page 637. 'Washington Quarterly', Fall 1985 , ''High politics: Drugs across borders''; Vol. 8, No. 4; Page 85, International Drug Trafficking and US Foreign Policy. Washington, Elaine Shannon. ''The New Kings of Coke'', Time Magazine Inc., July 1, 1991, page 21. Details the shift in power of the Andean drug lords with the capture of Pablo Escobar, from the Medellin cartel to the Cali Cartel. Experts believe this crime family wields more power and wealth then the much publicized Sicilian Mafia. Furthermore, it illustrates just how much coke around the world they do distribute as well as how the do it, and what is being attempted to stop it. Watson, Russell and Larmer, Brook, ''It's your Turn to Lose'', 'Newsweek', September 28, 1992, page 29. Ask the question of what the Shining Path@ wil l do with the leader jailed.